Raptors Taking The Gamble For Success

The Toronto Raptors head into this season looking very different than the team that lost in 5 games to the Orlando Magic. It was clear to anyone that watched that series that changes were needed and were coming to Toronto. Some of the media suggested that the first change that would come would be the firing of Sam Mitchell. But that was not the case. Bryan Colangelo instead decided to re-build the team that Mitchell had to coach. If anyone questioned that Bryan was behind his head coach it should be a clear message that is the truth. Colangelo has decided to stick with Sam despite a lot of speculation on a couple of occasions.

So, with coach Mitchell remaining the question became how do you address the flaws in this Raptor roster? The answer would be the trade for Jermaine O’Neal. If this move works out it is a pretty brilliant one. This is one of those trades that will be highly successful or a complete failure. There really is no in between. But in the view of Bryan Colangelo it was a risk worth taking. There is also the fall back of having a huge amount of cap space in 2010. Despite what people thought about T.J Ford in Toronto the rest of the NBA did not seem to share that opinion. Five offers according to Colangelo came his way for his unhappy point guard. He said the O’Neal offer was the best of the bunch and he and the Raptors made the move. It would also cost them Rasho Nesterovic and seldom used Maceo Baston and trading down into the second round from the number 17 pick in the 1st round.

Jawai vs Hibbert

This would produce the other gamble of this deal that is not talked about as much. Nathan Jawai instead of Roy Hibbert or someone else the Raptors could have selected at number 17. Jawai is a raw talent from Australia that has about 5 years of experience playing basketball at all. He could turn out to be a steal of the draft. The Raptors historically have had little to no success with picks from the second round. It will be another second round pick that will be the back-up point guard behind Jose Calderon.  But as far as Nathan Jawai he will not have the pressure to contribute right away at least not from the Raptors.  But the people in Australia have higher expectations for Nathan and most important of all he does for himself.  When people look back on this trade how Jawai does in comparison to Roy Hibbert will also be a factor to consider in who won this trade between Pacers and Raptors.

When you compare Hibbert and Jawai it is interesting. Some of the skills people question about Hibbert are strengths in the game of Nathan Jawai. I have no doubt that Roy Hibbert is going to have a productive NBA Career.  But based on my own personal opinion and the great amount of research I had done on Hibbert leading up to the draft, I do not think he will ever be a star in the NBA. I also did a tremendous amount of research about Nathan Jawai. Based on that and my own opinion I think there is a chance that Nathan could be something special. You have to take into account how young in his basketball life Jawai is in comparison to Roy Hibbert. In Roy’s time at Georgetown I learned in my research how much he developed in his time there. He is much closer to the max level of what he can be as a basketball player than Nathan Jawai. The gamble that Jawai can become that special player is a small part of the larger gamble that Bryan Colangelo is taking. This is part of this deal that most will overlook but it could be a key to evaluating it in the future.

Can J.O Have A Rebirth In Toronto?

But the thing that will be the focus for most is can Jermaine O’Neal be healthy and productive for the Raptors. He says that he was a man playing on one leg with the Pacers for a year and a half. He says that he is healthy and ready to put the Pacers behind him. The Raptors did their homework and seem to agree that he is indeed healthy and ready to go. There is also the mental aspect of what went on with the Pacers. O’Neal who was the leader of that franchise watch it explode on his watch. The Ron Artest brawl that happened in Detroit was the start of the Pacers fall from grace. A team that was thought to be a contender prior to that night fell from contender to not even in playoffs. The blame for that fell at the feet of O’Neal. In Toronto the buck stops with Chris Bosh and that should be a good thing. O’Neal can focus on helping someone else lead rather than lead himself.

The Reason Why Was D

The whole reason for the gamble that the Raptors have taken is the need to get better on defense. A healthy O’Neal is going to go a long way in doing that. A big body like Nathan Jawai could also impact down the line. Not to mention the star player of the team just won a gold medal and it was based on a new found defensive intensity on his part.

More D = Less O?

The question becomes how much offense have they given up to get better on defense? Jose Calderon no matter what you think can not produce the combined numbers with Roko Ukic that he had with T.J Ford. What Raptors fans can expect from Roko Ukic is a real unknown and that is part of this gamble as well. Jose Calderon is not super human and there will be points that this offense will be in the hands of a player that has not played a single minute in the NBA. A fast learning curve for Roko Ukic is going to be needed. In fact he must out perform what Claderon did as a rookie for the Raptors to feel confident they have their point guard situation on solid ground. The fact people are wondering if a Marbury reunion with both Bryan Colangelo and Sam Mitchell is being talked about says not everyone is convinced in the fan base. The artist formerly known as Starbury is expected to be bought out by the Knicks by the end of the weak. If Colangelo is still in gambling mood that would be a big one.  But there has been no indication that the Raptors intend to do anything to it’s roster prior to the opening game vs Sixers.

The real thing that may decide the amount of success on offense is the guys on the wing. A new look on the inside should give more open and easier looks from the outside. This should mean more chances for Jason Kapono and Anthony Parker from the outside.  While guys like Jamario Moon and maybe even Joey Graham to drive to the basket. You also have Hassan Adams as part of this group and combo guard Will Solomon.  Who ever steps up to the challenge could become a guy that will see his point totals rise. The smart money goes on the shooters in Parker and Kapono.  The Raptors Offense should look more like the one Kapono played in with another O’Neal in Miami. While Anthony Parker can have a chance to be a bigger part of the offense to if he steps up to the plate. There is also that Bargnani fellow. He may even play some time at the 3 spot according to Bryan Colangelo.  Sam Mitchell was not as willing to say that.

Regardless of where he appears on the floor, this is a key season for perhaps Colangelo’s biggest gamble of all Andrea Bargnani. Jermaine O’Neal said that Bargnani will be a key to this team being successful. He has worked with Andrea a bit in Las Vegas.  It seems pretty clear to almost everyone if Andrea Bargnani breaks through this season the Raptors chances at success take a dramatic rise. He is truly the ultimate X-Factor in all of this. He is said to be bigger and worked on some basic post moves to add to his key weapon of long range shooting. After last season I really have no idea what to expect from Andrea. But for those who want to see the positive side of the fence, the pressure to perform should be less on Bargnani. He also will get to see a lot second team units from the Raptors opposition on a consistent basis. These are all good signs for Andrea to rebuild his confidence. That has been a very fragile thing over his first couple seasons in the NBA.

The Health Question

There are a lot of gambles for the Toronto Raptors including the reduced number of bodies. Only 13 players makes you very worried if the injury bug enters into the Raptors this year. A injury to Jose Calderon would be a death blow for this team. For as much as the talk is about the health of O’Neal the health of Calderon will be key. Thankfully Jose has had a fairly good run in the NBA as far as that goes. But the injury in the Olympics at least for me brought the fear that if Jose is not healthy this team is in serious trouble.  But that is a bridge we all will hope this team does not have to cross.  I am looking forward to seeing how all this looks on a basketball court. That day is fast approaching.  CAN’T WAIT!!!

Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Bryan Colangelo, Chris Bosh, Hassan Adams, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Jermaine O'Neal, Joey Graham, Jose Calderon, Knicks, Pacers, Raptors 08/09, Roy Hibbert, Sam Mitchell, Stehpon Marbury, Will Solomon